COVID-19 & Scenario Planning Using AI/ML

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has pushed the global economy to a possible recession with 27 million cases as of September 2020. As the world is slowly recovering, it is important for organisations to adapt the range and speed of scenario plans to get back on track and overcome the severe economic situation. This blog will explain how businesses can use Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in their business scenario planning to reduce the amount of uncertainty and take advantage of emerging opportunities during COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus Pushes CFOs to Improve Scenario Planning

According to Accenture, the rapidly changing situation has made most of the historical data rendered unusable, urging companies to use more real-time planning methods, with scenario modelling techniques, what-if hypotheses and rapid simulation. The four fundamental steps for a successful scenario planning are:

• Determining the right time horizon for forecasting.

• Identifying drivers of the forecast.

• Modelling rapid changes to external factors.

• Creating agile planning processes and solutions.

Hence, it is pivotal for CFOs to analyse multiple scenarios using AI/ML powered technology. These advanced tools are 10 to even 20 times more efficient and agile than the regular Excel and can enable business leaders to optimise their decision-making in these uncertain times.

How does AI/ML Help in Fighting COVID-19 Crisis?

AI and ML technology allow better understanding and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. Machine learning plays a vital role in enabling computers to imitate human intelligence and analyse large amounts of data to quickly identify patterns and insights. Prior to the corona outbreak, business leaders have already embraced AI/ML solutions in various business functions, including supply chain management, cash-flow forecasting, healthcare support, and sales prioritisation.

For instance, just a few weeks into the pandemic, Rahul KM, our founder of Forecasty.AI, together with Lennart Kraft and Bernd Skiera from Goethe University analyzed vast amounts of data with different mathematical models and found the potentially crucial role of UVB radiation and potentially vitamin D in preventing coronavirus. The results led to more than 40 clinical trials focusing on the role of vitamin D in mitigating COVID-19, with some early promising results.

Another example is Chan Zuckerberg Biohub in the US built a model to estimate the number of COVID-19 infections that analysed 12 regions across the globe. In addition, a French startup created a ML-powered chatbot to answer questions about COVID-19 from the public by searching from official government communications.

As COVID-19 continues to play a dominant role, scenario planning based on COVID-19 outbreak and peaks helps businesses to plan and allocate resources better.

Solid Business Scenario Planning with Forecasty.AI

Forecasty.AI enables buyers & sellers of commodity products and similar B2B markets to generate more accurate forecasts on their own to help them improve profits. Thus Forecasty.AI enables buyers & sellers of commodities who are facing challenges to make smarter & more profitable business decisions due to sub-optimal forecasting solutions like Excel, which is less reliable, less efficient and lacks simulation. We create highly accurate predictions by applying advanced AI/ML on established and new data sources via a simple drag and drop solution. Our solution automates forecasting tasks, ensures explainability and further allow scenario simulations to improve management decision making.

In order to help our customers plan their businesses better, we provide scenario planning solutions specifically to tackle challenges from COVID-19.

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